I visited Burma for the first time in 16 years last December. Back then I felt
relative optimism
about our country's political transition -- despite its deepening
poverty, the ongoing war against the Kachin ethnic group, and sectarian
violence between Buddhists and Muslims. The
release of hundreds of political prisoners, the emergence of a free press, and Aung San Suu Kyi's electoral victory in the
2012 by-elections gave people reason to hope that the country would soon be free and developed.
Now I've come back, and this time I see a totally different country. The
winds of change are carrying a bad smell rather than fresh air.
Anti-Muslim hate speech and riots have spread to major cities, and
Buddhist monks are aggressively interfering in our multi-ethnic polity
by
pushing
a draft law that restricts inter-faith marriages. The monks are even
threatening politicians who refuse to endorse their bill with
retaliation when the country holds its next general election three years
from now. There's no doubt that elements within both the ruling elite
and the political opposition are taking advantage of rising
ultra-nationalism by either jumping on the bandwagon or dodging
responsibility for tackling the problem. Horrible as this is, it's not
just ethnic and religious minority groups that are being attacked.
Women, too, are increasingly becoming victims of ideological extremism
and political opportunism, as manifested by the draft law on inter-faith
marriage.
But perhaps the most worrisome trend in Burma these days is a widening
split between the president and the powerful speaker of the lower house
of parliament. Worst of all, part of the responsibility for the
resulting anxiety lies with Aung San Suu Kyi, since she has decided to
side with Speaker Thura
Shwe Mann against the government.
Since the start of the political opening and the
initial negotiations
between Aung San Suu Kyi and President Thein Sein in 2011, observers
have noted that a stable relationship among the three leading figures in
the country -- the president, the speaker of the house, and opposition
leader Aung San Suu Kyi -- is critical to the success of Burma's reform.
There has been a constant personal (and to some extent institutional)
rivalry
between the president and the speaker almost from the beginning of the
current transition. But despite everything the two men's relationship
has never been as ugly as it is right now.
Most recently, the speaker has
challenged
the government's approach to peace talks with the ethnic rebel groups,
demanding parliament's direct involvement in ceasefire negotiations with
the
Kachin.
"I've been informed by some lawmakers and through public opinion that
the peace talks have failed to achieve peace," Shwe Mann told
parliament.
He has even
called for
a meeting of National Defense and Security Council (NDSC), the
military-dominated eleven-member body that holds wide-ranging powers, in
order to discuss the executive's handling of the peace issue. This
unusual attempt to activate the
NDSC,
which has not met for some time, raised the eyebrows of several
observers who once viewed the speaker of the house as a champion of
reform.
It is now clear that Shwe Mann's move was intended to weaken President
Thein Sein and his reformist aides from the government think tank, the
Myanmar Peace Center (MPC). The president is reportedly being strongly
considered as a candidate to win the Nobel Peace Prize later this year
for his reforms, and any major fallout from the intensifying power
struggle within the troika could damage his credibility and even put
proposed reforms off track.
But even before Shwe Mann began his public criticism of the government's
peace initiative, Aung San Suu Kyi said in late May that the
government's reform measures in recent years "have produced no tangible
changes" for the rule of law and peace in Burma. Aung San Suu Kyi's
unofficial alliance with Shwe Mann against the government, therefore,
has become the biggest constraint on Thein Sein's power.
Many people in intellectual circles and the business community worry
that Aung San Suu Kyi is in the wrong political camp. Civil society
activists are dismayed by her political maneuvering within the elite and
her neglect of the population's more immediate problems, ranging from
ethno-religious conflicts to dire poverty. It seems that all
stakeholders, including the ethnic groups, will be forced to take sides
in this escalating power struggle as the 2015 elections approach.
All observers, in any case, tend to agree that the political situation
in Burma this year is becoming a serious cause for anxiety. One last
thing that could compound these concerns is the lack of clarity about
the military's preferences. No one knows whether the head of the armed
forces, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, will choose to take sides in
this power struggle, or whether he entertains political ambitions of his
own. If the latter is the case, it would almost certainly complicate
Burma's political transition and perhaps disrupt the reform process.
Given the recent events in Egypt, there seems good reason to be worried
about the possibility of a fresh military coup in Burma as well.
Min Zin is the Burma blogger for Transitions. Read the rest of his posts here.
http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/07/10/a_state_of_anxiety