A State of Anxiety

Posted By Min Zin Wednesday, July 10, 2013 - 4:05 PM Share

I visited Burma for the first time in 16 years last December. Back then I felt relative optimism about our country's political transition -- despite its deepening poverty, the ongoing war against the Kachin ethnic group, and sectarian violence between Buddhists and Muslims. The release of hundreds of political prisoners, the emergence of a free press, and Aung San Suu Kyi's electoral victory in the 2012 by-elections gave people reason to hope that the country would soon be free and developed.
Now I've come back, and this time I see a totally different country. The winds of change are carrying a bad smell rather than fresh air. Anti-Muslim hate speech and riots have spread to major cities, and Buddhist monks are aggressively interfering in our multi-ethnic polity by pushing a draft law that restricts inter-faith marriages. The monks are even threatening politicians who refuse to endorse their bill with retaliation when the country holds its next general election three years from now. There's no doubt that elements within both the ruling elite and the political opposition are taking advantage of rising ultra-nationalism by either jumping on the bandwagon or dodging responsibility for tackling the problem. Horrible as this is, it's not just ethnic and religious minority groups that are being attacked. Women, too, are increasingly becoming victims of ideological extremism and political opportunism, as manifested by the draft law on inter-faith marriage. 
But perhaps the most worrisome trend in Burma these days is a widening split between the president and the powerful speaker of the lower house of parliament. Worst of all, part of the responsibility for the resulting anxiety lies with Aung San Suu Kyi, since she has decided to side with Speaker Thura Shwe Mann against the government.
Since the start of the political opening and the initial negotiations between Aung San Suu Kyi and President Thein Sein in 2011, observers have noted that a stable relationship among the three leading figures in the country -- the president, the speaker of the house, and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi -- is critical to the success of Burma's reform. There has been a constant personal (and to some extent institutional) rivalry between the president and the speaker almost from the beginning of the current transition. But despite everything the two men's relationship has never been as ugly as it is right now.
Most recently, the speaker has challenged the government's approach to peace talks with the ethnic rebel groups, demanding parliament's direct involvement in ceasefire negotiations with the Kachin. "I've been informed by some lawmakers and through public opinion that the peace talks have failed to achieve peace," Shwe Mann told parliament.
He has even called for a meeting of National Defense and Security Council (NDSC), the military-dominated eleven-member body that holds wide-ranging powers, in order to discuss the executive's handling of the peace issue. This unusual attempt to activate the NDSC, which has not met for some time, raised the eyebrows of several observers who once viewed the speaker of the house as a champion of reform. 
It is now clear that Shwe Mann's move was intended to weaken President Thein Sein and his reformist aides from the government think tank, the Myanmar Peace Center (MPC). The president is reportedly being strongly considered as a candidate to win the Nobel Peace Prize later this year for his reforms, and any major fallout from the intensifying power struggle within the troika could damage his credibility and even put proposed reforms off track.
But even before Shwe Mann began his public criticism of the government's peace initiative, Aung San Suu Kyi said in late May that the government's reform measures in recent years "have produced no tangible changes" for the rule of law and peace in Burma. Aung San Suu Kyi's unofficial alliance with Shwe Mann against the government, therefore, has become the biggest constraint on Thein Sein's power.
Many people in intellectual circles and the business community worry that Aung San Suu Kyi is in the wrong political camp. Civil society activists are dismayed by her political maneuvering within the elite and her neglect of the population's more immediate problems, ranging from ethno-religious conflicts to dire poverty. It seems that all stakeholders, including the ethnic groups, will be forced to take sides in this escalating power struggle as the 2015 elections approach.
All observers, in any case, tend to agree that the political situation in Burma this year is becoming a serious cause for anxiety. One last thing that could compound these concerns is the lack of clarity about the military's preferences. No one knows whether the head of the armed forces, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, will choose to take sides in this power struggle, or whether he entertains political ambitions of his own. If the latter is the case, it would almost certainly complicate Burma's political transition and perhaps disrupt the reform process. Given the recent events in Egypt, there seems good reason to be worried about the possibility of a fresh military coup in Burma as well. 
Min Zin is the Burma blogger for Transitions. Read the rest of his posts here.
http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/07/10/a_state_of_anxiety 

Can the Kachin survive war's escalation by Myanmar forces?

Htun Aung Gyaw
Special to The Nation January 4, 2013 1:00 am

The battle between the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and the Myanmar army escalated from a ground battle to a conflict with air strikes on December 28. Even if Myanmar troops capture the Kachin headquarters, this conflict will not stop there - the war will go on, and many precious lives will be wasted.

When U Thein Sein was elected as president of Myanmar, he ordered the army to stop fighting in Kachin State. However, army chief of staff, General Min Aung Hlaing, paid no attention to the president's order and continued to fight. Questioned about this, Nay Pyi Taw said troops on the frontier had not received the order yet, and it was hard to convey the message while they were there. It said the order would reach the troops fighting against the KIA shortly. But it has been more than a year, and now the army is using air strikes to try to capture the Kachin headquarters at Laiza, which is near the border with China.

Without China's blessing or green light, government forces would not dare to use air strikes against the Kachin headquarters. So, it seems that Beijing has agreed to eliminate the KIA, which was once a trade partner with China. A mega dam on the Irrawaddy River was halted by Thein Sein after he began his term as president, because of nationwide outrage over such a project on the most important river for Burmese people. The decision upset the Chinese because the dam would have generated electricity that Yunnan province needs for its development. But the Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO) opposed the Myitsone Dam, as it was against the will of local people.

In addition, the building of a pipeline from Arakan State to Yunnan has seen a tremendous effort by the Chinese. However, they have used only their own workers to build it. Local people did not get any benefit from the pipeline project and it has upset the whole nation. The pipeline will also cross through some villages in Kachin State. As a result the villagers will be moved by force - destroying their livelihoods.

Furthermore, people that were forced to move when the Myitsone Dam project started now want to go back to their villages, but they have not been allowed to return, even though the project was halted. China needs the Myanmar army more than it needs the KIO. The government gave them a green light to build the mega dam and pipeline for their own benefit. It favoured China - but the KIO rejected both the dam and the pipeline. It is clear that favouring the Myanmar army instead of the KIO is more beneficial for the Chinese government. As a result, they have turned a blind eye to Myanmar government forces crossing the border and making air strikes against the KIA base.

Before 1988, Burma was heavily dependent on a black market economy. Border trade was the main source for basic needs such as soap, clothing and machine parts from neighbouring countries such as China, Thailand and India. Most products came from Thailand and China. The Karen resistance, the Karen National Union (KNU), controlled the Thai-Myanmar border trade and enjoyed close ties with Thai generals and politicians. Buying food, medicine, arms and ammunition from the Thais was not difficult for the KNU.

After nationwide demonstrations in 1988, the Myanmar army changed its "closed door" economic policy to an open-door policy, to eliminate the black market and promote open trade. For the Thais, dealing directly with the military regime is far more beneficial than dealing with the KNU and other ethnic resistance groups. Their national and personal interests favour those who will give them more profit than the other. They do not care if the Myanmar regime commits crimes or violates human rights. They only care about their national interest. As a result, Thais turned their back on the KNU and resistance groups, blocking dealers who used to sell arms and ammunition, and imposing travel restrictions inside Thai territory. The border trade died down and it was hard to purchase arms and ammunition, which weakened the ethnic resistance groups. On the other hand, the open economic policy has caused trade to boom between neighbouring countries and Myanmar.

In the early 1990s, when the Myanmar army started an offensive on the (KNU's) Wankha camp, the Thai army allowed Myanmar government troops to cross into Thailand to attack the camp from both sides. Now, the Chinese are doing the same thing by permitting Myanmar's warplanes to use Chinese airspace to attack Kachin strongholds.

In conclusion, the KIO headquarters may fall into government hands, just like Manerplaw, the KNU headquarters, did in 1995. But the Kachin will continue their fight as guerrilla troops as long as their people support them in the fight against the government. So, the best solution is to discuss this conflict in parliament - and there are many questions that need to be asked.

Why has the fighting continued to now, and for close to 18 months? How was it started? What are the demands of the KIA -are they fair and reasonable? What benefit will the government gain from this conflict? What is its goal? Why is the army still fighting even though the president ordered a ceasefire? All these matters need to be addressed in parliament. The people need to know the answers and should be given the right to respond.

The rational and practical thing is to take immediate action to stop the fighting by both sides and withdraw troops to their previous positions, which was agreed on when they made a ceasefire deal 17 years ago. Then, start a dialogue without any conditions, together with local dignitaries, political party leaders and UN observers. Dialogue is the only option to settle disputes among the ethnic nationalities - not a battle on the ground or bombing from the air.

The KIO headquarters at Laiza developed into a full-fledged town during the ceasefire period and it would be heartbreaking to see it destroyed by government troops. If civil war continues, there will be no development or improved living standards for the Kachin. If Laiza is destroyed, it will cost billions of dollars to rebuild. All the time and effort to build the town will have been wasted. We must stop this meaningless war, once and for all, for the sake of our country and its citizens as a whole.

Htun Aung Gyaw is a former chairman of the All Burma Students' Democratic Front.
bY: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/Can-the-Kachin-survive-wars-escalation-by-Myanmar--30197192.html